By Bahram Hassanpourfard, Epidemiologist
England’s NHS prescribing bill is on course to finish 2026 well ahead of inflation. Through the first seven months of the year — the latest English Prescribing Dataset — GP and community prescribing spend, counting all items, is running about 7% above the same period of 2025, more than double the rate of consumer price inflation.
On that trajectory, full-year 2026 spending projects to about £11.3bn, against £10.5bn in 2025. UK CPI has run between 2.6% and 3.1% this year, so inflation accounts for only around £0.3bn of the rise. The remaining roughly £460m is real-terms growth — spending above what inflation alone would predict. Medicines alone, setting aside dressings, appliances and equipment, make up about £9.7bn of the total and some £370m of the excess.
Most of the above-inflation growth sits in two therapy areas. The endocrine chapter — diabetes and weight management, where the GLP-1 receptor agonists sit — accounts for about half of it, up roughly 13% year on year. The cardiovascular chapter is next, up about 16%.
One product stands out. Apotek Analytics estimates that Mounjaro (tirzepatide) alone will pass £1bn in primary-care prescribing in England this year, and that counting all tirzepatide — including where it is prescribed by its generic name — the figure is nearer £1.35bn. The prescribing data already shows tirzepatide above £500m in the first seven months, on a steep upward curve.
The contrast with last year is sharp: the bill rose about 2.8% from 2024 to 2025, barely ahead of inflation. 2026 is a marked acceleration, and it is being driven by volume and the shift to newer, higher-cost medicines rather than by general price inflation.
Source: Life Sciences Hub – lifesciences.apotekanalytics.com
